Dangers Impacting Brokers

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Overview

The real estate industry faces credibility issues due to many part-time, untrained, and unethical agents, resulting from low entry barriers and minimal education requirements. This gap creates a large disparity in service quality, tarnishing the industry’s reputation and lacking initiatives to elevate national standards, which could harm both the industry and consumers.

The Dangers

The top 10 dangers are listed below in order of their danger index. At the bottom of the page, you can see how they were classified and indexed.

B1. Regulatory Tsunami Hits.  
B2. Paper Brokerages Cause Disruption.  
B3. Brokers Lose Control of Data.  
B4. A Consumer Brand Crashes the Party.  
B5. New Business Models Go Mainstream.  
B6. Brokers Simply Go Broke.  
B7. Technology Becomes a Runaway Train.  
B8. FSBO Develops into a Do-It-Yourself Model.  
B9. Sales Tax Threatens Margins.  
B10. Portals Leverage Lead Gen Dominance.  

B1. Regulatory Tsunami Hits

Regulatory creep and large financial penalties increase compliance costs.

In Context
Regulatory creep and large financial penalties increase compliance costs. The CFPB was established as a new bureau through the authorization of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Financial Protection Act of 2010. It has overwhelmed each of the industries it has entered (Student loans, Automobile loans, Credit cards, and Mortgages) and, given its short but impressive history, there is every indication it will have a significant impact on national, large, and/or diversified real estate groups. The intent behind its creation is to: • Give consumers a vehicle to enforce the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act and other consumer financial protections laws. • Educate the public about financial transactions. • Utilize research to prevent future financial crises, such as another housing bubble. In its mission to rebuild the mortgage banking landscape, the CFPB has attempted to examine every aspect of the home buying transaction and the roles of the various participants facilitating the transaction. Its investigations haven’t been limited to the lenders whose practices were a large contributor to these recent changes; the investigations have extended to real estate brokerages. Important to note here is that the CFPB was also granted responsibility to oversee the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA), which was formerly overseen by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Author's Perspective
Only time will tell how much of an impact the CFPB will have on real estate brokers, resulting in increased costs due to compliance, increased risk for small brokers with limited capital, increased scrutiny on marketing agreements, and the increased risk of agents moving to firms with strict compliance in place. What we do know is that the failure to comply at any level is not an option, and the penalties for failure will be costly. Those who suggest that real estate service providers are not vulnerable under the Financial Services provisions need to remember that there has been little or no effective RESPA enforcement by HUD over the past decade. Most brokerage companies are either ignorant of the fact or believe they are in compliance with CFPB/RESPA regulations, however most are likely in violation already.
Danger Index: 100/100
(Critical)
Probability: 5.0/5.0
(100% Chance)
Timing: 4.0/5.0
(1-3 Years)
Impact: 5.0/5.0
(Game Changer)

B2. Paper Brokerages Cause Disruption

With no walls and little operating costs, Paper Brokerages proliferate and become a major force overnight.

In Context
With no walls and little operating costs, Paper Brokerages proliferate and become a major force overnight. Paper Brokerages are companies that join multiple listing services (MLSs) in order to gain access to listing data and subsequently display it online. They do not, however, provide traditional brokerage services to consumers; they are created to generate leads for other brokerages. Paper Brokerages that obtain a brokerage license, or partner with a licensee who can be their “broker of record,” are able to display Internet Data Exchange (IDX) listing feeds compiled by MLSs. As Paper Brokerages don’t have the same operating and cost structures as traditional brokerage companies, the concern is that they are “misusing” the MLS system and that the widespread adoption of the Paper Brokerage business model will undermine participation in IDX and the MLS system itself.
Author's Perspective
As the real estate industry evolves and increasingly experiments with different business models, IDX opens a new variation of models not originally contemplated. Existing big brokers have become vulnerable because some MLS services have enabled non-traditional entrants (basically non full-time brokers) to utilize their information in a variety of ways. In some cases the owner does the negotiating and sale with the buyers agent and uses the cooperating brokerage company to facilitate the closing. This shift has marginalized large brokers, causing many to consider withdrawing from the MLS, and others to question the viability of MLS going forward.
Danger Index: 80/100
(Severe)
Probability: 5.0/5.0
(100% Chance)
Timing: 4.0/5.0
(1-3 Years)
Impact: 4.0/5.0
(Major Impact)

B3. Brokers Lose Control of Data

Consumer confidence in industry data erodes due to the multiplicity of conflicting data sources.

In Context
Traditionally, data was aggregated on a local level with an excess of terms, conditions, and criteria, all of which was deemed to be accurate. With the advent of the portals there is a movement toward the aggregation and syndication of data that has resulted in data collection from multiple sources that are not always kept updated, and is therefore compromised. The battle over the ownership of the data has resulted in certain data sources being disallowed, which in turn has further compromised the accuracy of the data. Furthermore, the data mentioned really only refers to the listing data and, while it is a key piece, it is just part of the overall real estate data portfolio—tax records, insurance info, demographic records, mortgage loans, credit reports, drive times, lifestyle information, school performance, criminal activity, etc. So now the entire industry is focused on and concerned with controlling the consumer search process, which incorporates the creation, compilation, and distribution of all data.
Author's Perspective
Innovation pushes the boundaries of existing paradigms and mindsets with new opportunities that test both current and new players. The struggle facing brokers is that decisions regarding the management of real estate data—with regard to the release, withholding, and application of data—are made by a fragmented industry and are very diverse and inconsistently implemented. Inaccuracy of data and ownership of such data has become a major issue in our industry. As a result, there are numerous models that are constantly evolving, creating voids and roadblocks that many outside the industry view as opportunities. The industry finds itself at the early, challenging stage of laying down new rules and guidelines for managing real estate data with the delivery of unique content that is unavailable elsewhere.
Danger Index: 72/100
(Severe)
Probability: 4.0/5.0
(80% Chance)
Timing: 4.0/5.0
(1-3 Years)
Impact: 4.5/5.0
(Game Changer)

B4. A Consumer Brand Crashes the Party

A well-established consumer brand is introduced into the marketplace and a new multi-billion dollar residential real estate brokerage brand is created.

In Context
Historically, introducing a new brand from outside the residential real estate brokerage marketplace has been difficult, and considered by many as very unlikely due to the fragmented, hyper local, and highly personal nature of the industry. With growing consolidation in the industry and the increased addition of systems and technology, the previously held limitations on building a brand no longer apply. Over the past decade, Realogy has proven that it is feasible to take certain “outside” brands such as BH&G and Sotheby’s and successfully introduce them into residential real estate franchising. Warren Buffett has proven that a completely unknown brand in the residential real estate industry such as Berkshire Hathaway can be introduced and built into a new powerhouse.
Author's Perspective
It would not be a stretch for home improvement giants Home Depot ($133 billion market cap; $79 billion in annual sales) and Lowe’s ($70 billion market cap; $55 billion in sales), to expand into the residential real estate brokerage business. One example would be to take the model that Lowe’s has, assisting REALTORS® in providing marketing benefits and finding savings for their clients, and expand it into an online lead generation service model. A second example would be to take Lowe’s existing partnership program with construction and repair vendors and expand it into a type of DIY real estate model, while a third option could be to acquire a successful existing global real estate brand such as RE/MAX. Other interesting possibilities could include banks or HGTV. They already have a recognizable brand in the financial or home lifestyle markets and can expand into, partner with an existing company to create, or leverage a new real estate brokerage brand. However, while the dollars are always enticing, the fragmented and byzantine structure of the industry goes against the nature of these organizations.
Danger Index: 64/100
(Severe)
Probability: 4.0/5.0
(80% Chance)
Timing: 4.0/5.0
(1-3 Years)
Impact: 4.0/5.0
(Major Impact)

B5. New Business Models Go Mainstream

The existing compensation structure gets eclipsed as new business models gain rapid traction.

In Context
The relationship between brokers and agents has been redefined a number of times during the last 50 years. Each time the redefinition of the relationship resulted in the formation of a new company and/or group of companies. The innovations brought to the industry by those new companies caused a disruption in the industry that resulted in an increase in the number of agents jumping between companies. In the 1960s and 1970s the franchise model created new national entities, in the late 1970s and 1980s the 100 percent model exploded, and in the 1990s and 2000s the interdependent and team model gained significant traction. Each new business model led to new global companies that dominated the industry for decades. The next winning model could be a technology-powered, agent-centric, flat fee, transaction-based fee, salaried, or auctioneering model.
Author's Perspective
It is interesting to note that over 40 percent of Fortune 500 companies in 2000 were no longer around in 2010, yet at the same time those top companies that were in the real estate industry in 2000 are all still here. Two of the successful models, RE/MAX and Keller Williams International Realty, both took a decade (or more) to gain significant national critical mass. Interesting companies such as Redfin (in its fifth round of funding and in 48 metros), HomeSmart (a technology-offering already in place), and eXp Realty (a cloud-based virtual real estate brokerage) are still in early enough stages that in time they may become dominant national models. The entrepreneurial spirit in residential brokerage is strong. Innovation of the
Danger Index: 63/100
(Severe)
Probability: 4.5/5.0
(100% Chance)
Timing: 4.0/5.0
(1-3 Years)
Impact: 3.5/5.0
(Major Impact)

B6. Brokers Simply Go Broke

Increasing costs and decreasing revenues squeeze brokers' profits, leading to an increasing number of brokerages going out of business.

In Context
The real estate industry has always been a low-margin, high-volume business. Profit margins are slim, and brokers are constantly searching for new revenue streams to bolster their bottom lines. At the same time, expenses continue to rise. From technology investments to marketing costs, brokers are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain profitability. In a market downturn, brokers are especially vulnerable. Revenues decline as fewer transactions take place, while fixed costs remain the same. Many brokers find themselves in a precarious financial position, leading to an increase in the number of brokerages going out of business.
Author's Perspective
The brokerage business model is under significant pressure. As costs continue to rise and revenues are squeezed, many brokers are finding it difficult to maintain profitability. The industry is facing a period of consolidation, with smaller brokers being forced out of business or acquired by larger competitors. This trend is likely to continue, with fewer, larger brokerages dominating the market. The challenge for brokers is to find new revenue streams and reduce costs to remain competitive in a rapidly changing market.
Danger Index: 56/100
(High)
Probability: 4.0/5.0
(80% Chance)
Timing: 4.0/5.0
(1-3 Years)
Impact: 3.5/5.0
(Major Impact)

B7. Technology Becomes a Runaway Train

The pace of technological change accelerates, outstripping the ability of brokers to keep up.

In Context
The real estate industry has always been slow to adopt new technology. However, in recent years, the pace of technological change has accelerated, driven by advances in data analytics, artificial intelligence, and automation. Brokers are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with these changes. The rapid pace of technological change is creating significant challenges for brokers. They must invest in new technology to remain competitive, but the costs are high and the return on investment is uncertain. At the same time, they must ensure that their agents are trained and able to use the new technology effectively.
Author's Perspective
The pace of technological change is creating significant challenges for brokers. They must invest in new technology to remain competitive, but the costs are high and the return on investment is uncertain. At the same time, they must ensure that their agents are trained and able to use the new technology effectively. The rapid pace of change means that brokers must be constantly vigilant, ready to adapt to new technologies as they emerge. This is a significant challenge for an industry that has traditionally been slow to change. The risk is that brokers will be left behind, unable to compete in a rapidly changing market.
Danger Index: 48/100
(High)
Probability: 4.0/5.0
(80% Chance)
Timing: 4.0/5.0
(1-3 Years)
Impact: 3.0/5.0
(Moderate Impact)

B8. FSBO Develops into a Do-It-Yourself Model

The For Sale By Owner (FSBO) model gains traction as technology enables homeowners to sell their homes without the assistance of a broker.

In Context
The FSBO model has always been a small part of the real estate market, typically accounting for around 10 percent of all home sales. However, advances in technology are making it easier for homeowners to sell their homes without the assistance of a broker. Online platforms and tools are enabling homeowners to market their homes, connect with potential buyers, and manage the transaction process themselves. This is creating significant challenges for brokers, who are finding it increasingly difficult to justify their commission fees.
Author's Perspective
The rise of the FSBO model is a significant challenge for brokers. As technology enables homeowners to sell their homes without the assistance of a broker, the traditional brokerage model is under threat. Brokers must find new ways to add value and justify their commission fees. This may involve offering additional services, such as home staging, marketing, and transaction management, or adopting new business models that are more aligned with the needs of today’s consumers. The risk is that brokers will be left behind as homeowners increasingly turn to the FSBO model.
Danger Index: 42/100
(High)
Probability: 4.0/5.0
(80% Chance)
Timing: 3.0/5.0
(3-5 Years)
Impact: 3.5/5.0
(Major Impact)

B9. Sales Tax Threatens Margins

The imposition of a sales tax on real estate transactions threatens brokers' profit margins.

In Context
The idea of imposing a sales tax on real estate transactions has been floated in various jurisdictions as a way to raise revenue. This would have a significant impact on brokers’ profit margins, as they would likely be required to collect the tax and remit it to the government. The additional administrative burden and the potential reduction in transaction volumes could have a significant impact on brokers’ bottom lines.
Author's Perspective
The imposition of a sales tax on real estate transactions is a significant threat to brokers’ profit margins. The additional administrative burden and the potential reduction in transaction volumes could have a significant impact on brokers’ bottom lines. Brokers must be prepared to adapt to this potential change, finding new ways to maintain profitability in a challenging market.
Danger Index: 40/100
(Moderate)
Probability: 4.0/5.0
(80% Chance)
Timing: 2.5/5.0
(3-5 Years)
Impact: 4.0/5.0
(Major Impact)

B10. Portals Leverage Lead Gen Dominance

Real estate portals dominate lead generation, squeezing brokers' margins.

In Context
Real estate portals dominate lead generation, squeezing brokers’ margins. Real estate portals have become the dominant players in lead generation, leveraging their large audiences and extensive data to capture a significant share of the market. This has put pressure on brokers, who are finding it increasingly difficult to compete. The cost of leads has increased, and brokers are finding it difficult to maintain profitability.
Author's Perspective
The dominance of real estate portals in lead generation is a significant challenge for brokers. The cost of leads has increased, and brokers are finding it difficult to maintain profitability. Brokers must find new ways to generate leads and compete with the portals. This may involve investing in new technology, building stronger relationships with clients, and finding new revenue streams. The risk is that brokers will be left behind as portals continue to dominate the market.
Danger Index: 36/100
(Moderate)
Probability: 3.0/5.0
(60% Chance)
Timing: 4.0/5.0
(1-3 Years)
Impact: 3.0/5.0
(Moderate Impact)

Classification and Index

In order to best evaluate and present each danger, an Index was cre- ated based on the probability (P) of each danger occurring, the future timing (T) of the potential danger, and the possible impact (I) of each danger. The combined scoring of these factors results in the PTI Index. The index is not scientific but rather a combined and weighted repre- sentation of the research, surveys, and interviews that enable the dangers to be placed in order of significance as to the level of danger they present.

The overall result of evaluating each danger is presented in the PTI index (Probability, Timing and Impact), which ranks the danger to provide a level of consistency between the dangers/sections of the report. The Danger Index represents a composite overall score.

#

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Probability

100% Chance

80% Chance

60% Chance

40% Chance

20% Chance

Timing

1 Year

1-3 Years

3-5 Years

5-10 Years

10+ Years

Impact

Game Changer

Major Impact

Moderate Impact

Some Impact

No Impact

Danger Index

81-100, Critical

61-80, Severe

41-60, High

21-40, Moderate

0-20, Low